May 5th, 2008
Sometimes it is well to think before implementing policy:
Drunk driving after the passage of smoking bans in bars
Journal of Public Economics 92:1288-1305
Scott Adams and Chad Cotti
Using geographic variation in local and state smoke-free bar laws in the US, we observe an increase in fatal accidents involving alcohol following bans on smoking in bars that is not observed in places without bans. Although an increased accident risk might seem surprising at first, two strands of literature on consumer behavior suggest potential explanations — smokers driving longer distances to a bordering jurisdiction that allows smoking in bars and smokers driving longer distances within their jurisdiction to bars that still allow smoking, perhaps through non-compliance or outdoor seating. We find evidence consistent with both explanations. The increased miles driven by drivers wishing to smoke and drink offsets any reduction in driving from smokers choosing to stay home following a ban, resulting in increased alcohol-related accidents. This result proves durable, as we subject it to an extensive battery of robustness checks.Here the site of the paper
May 5th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
Dear Inti,
lovely article and interesting findings. I wonder if they’ve investigated (or ruled out) a third explanation: due to the smoking ban other people start to drive to pubs. These are the people that didn’t go to bars due to the smoking, but now feel free and safe to go.
Another points: since you are writing about peer reviewed work more often, maybe you’re interested in an initiative in favor of blogging on peer-reviewed research: www.researchblogging.org
May 5th, 2008 at 4:31 pm
well, they talk about “two strands of previous literature” , and the “increased miles driven by drivers wishing to smoke”.
Now, for your argument to work, the new bar-goers should drive more than before… it’s easier to imagine that the (new) traffic is not symmetric, I think. In any case that should be easy to account for, and I’ll be surprised if they did not check for it. If I get the reprint, I’ll comment further.
Anyway, thinking further: the point seems to be that smoke-bans increase traffic, which increase accidents. Even if you are right, still we have more accidents, which is what we would like to prevent with new policy, no?
I’ll check the researchblogging thing. Sounds like a nice tip!
May 5th, 2008 at 5:28 pm
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